Four stories of the future
“Better never means better for everyone… It always means worse, for some.”
Margaret Atwood
The Four stories of the future (or scenarios) showcase a range of possible futures for Wales, where flood resilience is enabled. These stories were used in a series of workshops with flood risk experts and the public, to allow participants to consider the benefits and trade-offs that might exist across multiple futures.
Each story is supported by wider trends and drivers shaping the future context of Wales. For example – demographic shifts, climate change, ageing, artificial intelligence, biodiversity loss, to name a few. The stories are shaped by the trends and drivers perceived to be most impactful to flood resilience, but also the most uncertain (critical uncertainties) – high vs low engagement/awareness of flood resilience and community-led vs government-led futures. Explore the four stories below and compare the experience of the five characters across each scenario.
Story 1: Government takes the lead
If the government takes the lead, there is a need for a multi-faceted approach that includes education, technology, infrastructure, legislation, community involvement, and resource management.
The future of flood preparedness relies on a comprehensive transformation that extends from schools to emergency services, leveraging technology, and fostering community empowerment. By embracing these changes, societies can build resilience, reduce risks, and create a collective response to the increasing threats posed by flooding.
The government leads on flood resilience efforts and provides strategies for communities and businesses on how to deal with floods, putting resources and efforts into a national campaign. This results in a connected, cross-crountry flood resilience system which is underpinned by expert advice and puts flood resilience at the forefront of all government decision-making.
However, in a more centralised approach to decision-making and developing a vision for Wales, not all communities might be engaged and not everyone wants to participate in the efforts. Some folks might not be engaged unless the government has planned for it, or don’t realise they need help before it’s too late. As a result some are areas in Wales still unprepared for flood events.
The mixed level of flood preparedness across the country means that occasionally when an extensive flood event occurs, both planned and unplanned government intervention are needed, such as putting up emergency flood defences, providing short term support for local services and handing out funding to those in most need. Majority of the public entrusts the government to keep them safe, but occasionally lacks local centres and strategies to act quickly.
Education and awareness have become foundational in the fight against flooding. Schools now regularly conduct flood drills, embedding the knowledge of what to do in an emergency from a young age. National campaigns use simulations to make the experience of flooding visceral, ensuring that every citizen understands the flood risks and what their role in flood mitigation is.
Technological advancements have revolutionized flood prediction and management. Cities are equipped with AI-driven weather prediction models that provide real-time, hyper-localized forecasts of flood risks. Drones and autonomous robots are deployed to monitor water levels and structural integrity of flood defenses. Satellite data is freely shared between regions, fostering a systemic approach to predicting and managing flood risks across Wales. Although the government has a good understanding of flood data and access to a range of tools, not all communities are afforded the same privileges. Self-initiated community schemes and flood management measures across rural areas are often not able to exchange data with the government-owned models due to an onerous data verification process or incompatibility of their operating systems.
Legislation has caught up with the need for a consistent and proactive approach to flood management. There is now a Welsh flood response protocol, funded by a tax on industries most responsible for climate change, which has led to a significant investment in flood defenses and infrastructure. Policies are dynamic, updated regularly through a feedback loop that includes frontline experiences and scientific research.
Key themes
Education and Awareness
Schools need to include flood awareness and practice their responses. National campaigns are needed to promote awareness.
Technology and Data
The use of immersive technology to simulate experiences, skills around information technology to predict floods, and investment in weather data for accuracy are all important.
Emergency Response and Infrastructure
The need for technology to give early warnings, storage of defences, logistics, and possibly a dedicated organisation or new emergency service. The repurposing of fire service personnel to respond to flooding is also suggested.
Legislation and Policy
Joined-up legislation, taxing industry to pay for responses, and the formulation of policy based on experience are key points. The idea of a consistent response is also mentioned.
Community Involvement
There’s a clear call for more community involvement and empowerment. The feedback suggests that the current response is ‘top-down’, with communities feeling disempowered and disenfranchised.
Resource Management
The resource-intensive nature of flood management is noted, with some feedback suggesting that the current approach is unsustainable and not reducing risks. There’s also a concern about the lack of resource.
Story 2: Collective decision-making
In the Wales in 2050, decision-making is marked by a transparent hierarchy with clear roles and responsibilities.
This ensures that competing priorities do not obstruct collective action. This model favours a slower, reflective approach allowing for a broader range of voices and perspectives to be heard and incorporated into policy and action.
In response to flooding, Wales has developed targeted flood groups that cater to the specific needs of various communities. This personalized approach recognises that each community has unique challenges and requirements. The pursuit of land justice is central to addressing the disproportionate impact of flooding on ethnic minority groups. Communities are advocating for equitable land distribution and management, and this is reflected in the prevalence of sustainable construction techniques. Drainage solutions are now designed to be ecologically sensitive, functioning effectively without relying on concrete and other environmentally detrimental materials.
Wales has introduced new technologies to support flood resilience. Advanced flood warning systems are deployed at scale, enabling communities to prepare for and respond quickly to flood events. There are also physical information boards showing infographics in multiple languages and are established to provide vital guidance during emergencies within towns and cities.
The Welsh communities have become models for balancing various demands on land and in coastal areas. Their comprehensive plans incorporate renewable energy projects, biodiversity conservation, woodland management, and effective flood mitigation. Canals that were once neglected have been reopened, and older infrastructure is cleverly repurposed to support biodiversity. Development plans now respect the intrinsic rights of rivers, ensuring that environmental considerations are prioritized.
Community engagement in Wales has been revolutionised through a dedicated task force, which includes local residents, playing a significant role in enhancing flood resilience. Vulnerable populations, including key workers, are given a voice in decision-making processes. The government and communities collaborate to develop strategies that reflect a tapestry of needs and insights.
Preventative measures and preparedness are the cornerstones of community initiatives. Robust measures are implemented to diminish the impact of floods, with emergency response systems steered by competent individuals. Community information is made easily accessible, emphasizing the principle of “planet before profit,” which underscores the importance of environmental sustainability.
However, challenges remain in the area of funding. Businesses are not incentivized by the government to contribute to flood prevention, and governmental support for flood insurance is limited. This often leaves small businesses and farmers vulnerable, risking significant losses in the event of flooding.
Key themes
Inclusive Decision-Making
A transparent hierarchy ensures clarity in roles and responsibilities, preventing competing priorities from hindering collective action. It is a slower but more inclusive process.
Targeted flood groups cater to specific community needs, fostering a personalized approach rather than a one-size-fits-all strategy.
Land Management and Justice
The community tackles the impact of flooding on ethnic minority groups by advocating for land justice. Sustainable construction methods prevail, and drainage solutions are designed to work without relying on concrete.
Technological Advancements
New technologies for flood warnings are actively used at scale, ensuring preparedness and swift response during flood events. A physical information board, featuring an infographic flow chart in multiple languages, provides essential guidance during emergencies.
Environmental Considerations
Communities balance diverse demands on land, incorporating renewable energy, biodiversity, woodland, and flood mitigation into a cohesive plan. Canals are reopened, legacy infrastructure is repurposed for biodiversity, and the rights of rivers are acknowledged during development
Community Engagement
A task force involving local communities actively participates in flood resilience efforts.
Vulnerable populations, including key workers, have a voice in decision-making processes, ensuring their needs are considered. The government collaborates with communities to develop comprehensive plans, taking diverse voices into account.
Prevention and Preparedness
Communities focus on prevention and resilience, implementing robust measures to reduce the impact of flooding. Emergency response systems are led by capable individuals, and community information is readily available. The overarching principle is “planet before profit,” emphasizing the importance of environmental sustainability.
Funding
Businesses are not incentivised by the government to provide support in flood prevention measures. Government is not able to support everyone with flood insurance, often leaving small businesses and farmers at risk of losing out.
Story 3: Patchy communication
In this scenario, the response to flood resilience in Wales exists, but it is fragmented. Community groups take the lead where possible, creating their own flood defences and resilience plans to varying degrees of success. Experts in flood risk management are individually empowered, with oversights of local approaches and coordination of flood resilience and mitigation.
However, without a coordinated catchment-based approach, these efforts are often duplicated or can even contradict one another. Some areas of Wales are well-protected, while others are left vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate breakdown. What is good for some, is not good for all. This lack of a unified response to flood prevention and mitigation leads to uneven resilience across Wales.
In 2050, the response to flooding in Wales is fragmented and reactive. There’s no overarching strategy or joined-up thinking, and the current situation has continued with existing inequalities amplified. The discourse is around response and not prevention, and vulnerabilities are likely to increase.
Some communities are more cohesive and support each other, while others are not. Some communities thrive, with increased communication and collaboration, while others don’t survive, leading to an increase in climate refugees. Those that can afford it move, which leads to increasing inequality. Adaptive communities form flood action groups and pull out of flood plans to “just do it”.
Unconventional strategies, like people storing canoes in houses, highlight the ad-hoc nature of coping mechanisms in the absence of a comprehensive plan. However, some communities break apart, and the potential of the community is diluted. People don’t speak to each other, and social divides are reinforced. There’s a two-tier society, those who can protect themselves and those who can’t.
New construction methods arise in some areas, with houses on silts in new developments and more flood-resistant building materials allowing water to move through. However, some areas are abandoned, and people move out of houses because of flooding and sell houses for less money. This leads to increased migration to different areas, putting pressure elsewhere.
The lack of businesses, particularly small independents, for fear of flooded premises and high insurance costs, is noticeable. New companies capitalise on new market opportunities, such as welly.com, floodgate.com, wind-upradios.com, pumps4us.com, blow-up kayaks, dehumidifiers.com. However, some individuals can’t get basic flood insurance, let alone afford flood protection infrastructure or technology for their homes.
Several terrible flood events happen, with no sharing of lessons learnt due to lack of communication. Projects are delivered in isolation, meaning a fractured response. The impacts on the environment show, due to no catchment-based approach. There’s no accountability or transparency about decision making. Some individuals are making decisions and acting, but these are sometimes misplaced.
The path forward requires a shift towards proactive strategies, cohesive governance, and a collective commitment to address the challenges posed by flooding.
Key themes
Divergence in Community Cohesion
Only some communities show remarkable cohesion and support during floods, while others struggle to rally together in the face of adversity. Specialist repair services cater to the unique needs of affected areas, emphasizing the fragmented nature of resources.
Innovations in Construction and Living
New construction methods, such as houses on stilts in new developments, showcase the adaptability of some areas to the changing climate.
Innovative building materials, more flood-resistant and allowing water to flow through, are emerging as pioneers in resilient construction.
Challenges in Planning and Thinking
Lack of joined-up thinking is evident, resulting in disjointed responses and fragmented approaches to flood management.
Unconventional strategies, like people storing canoes in houses, highlight the ad-hoc nature of coping mechanisms in the absence of a comprehensive plan.
Social Dynamics and Living Arrangements
The proximity of living spaces increases in some areas as people come together for support, while others experience fragmentation due to flooding concerns. Flood refugees, compelled to seek temporary housing, amplify existing challenges in urban planning and resource allocation.
Economic Strains and Market Opportunities
Economic pressures force some to move out of flood-prone houses, selling properties at reduced prices. The overarching economic system is under strain, leading to the decline of small independent businesses due to fears of flooded premises and high insurance costs.
Reactive Nature and Adaptive Communities
The response to surrounding floods leans towards reactive rather than preventative measures, leading to a sense of stagnation in achieving long-term solutions. New companies capitalize on emerging market opportunities, offering products and services tailored to the growing demand for flood-related solutions.
Communication and Community Dynamics
Some communities establish flood action groups, enhancing communication and collaboration in addressing immediate challenges. In contrast, potential communities face dilution as people become disconnected, leading to a breakdown in social bonds.
Inequalities and Adaptive Measures
Wealthier individuals can afford to relocate, exacerbating existing inequalities and creating a growing divide between thriving and struggling communities. Vulnerabilities are likely to increase in the absence of cohesive governance and proactive strategies.
Story 4: Business takes the lead
In this scenario, commercial entities take the lead in flood resilience. Companies invest in flood defences to protect their assets, and insurance companies offer incentives for homeowners to do the same. However, without much regulation, these efforts are primarily focused on protecting property rather than people. Individuals are left to look after themselves, leading to a disparity in resilience between those who can afford to protect their homes and those who cannot.
The government handed over the responsibility for traditional flood defences to big businesses. They have introduced new products to support people in flood events, contributing to a climate and heat resilient society. However, the lack of regulation and government prioritisation in funding and development of flood prevention measures has resulted in a somewhat chaotic response. Unequal investment in flood defences has led to some communities being safe, while others suffer the consequences of unexpected weather events.
Community partnerships with businesses have been empowering for the local Welsh people, but the response has been unbalanced. The focus has been on the flood-impacted communities that can afford the responses, raising questions about who pays and who is financially responsible. Is it the flooded communities or should it be across the board, following a ‘polluter pays’ principle?
There are strong local voices advocating for better regulation and oversight of and inclusion in the local council. They propose innovative solutions like reopening the canals that were used for coal to support drainage, especially with the looming threat of rivers bursting their banks. They promote the inclusion of bilingual information, which has been beneficial in ensuring everyone (tourists included) understands their role in flood protection.
The scenario presents both challenges and opportunities for governments, businesses, and communities to adapt together. However, they need to listen to each other, as there is a danger they might presume what’s best for others.
This future is empowering but unequal, and it underscores the need for a more balanced and inclusive approach to flood resilience.
Key themes
Empowering Local Voices
Strong local voices are essential in shaping resilient communities, advocating for their needs, and contributing to decision-making processes. Enhanced relationships between businesses, local authorities, and communities foster collaboration, ensuring a more inclusive and informed approach to flood resilience.
Community Living
The concept of all communities living across one level challenges traditional urban planning, emphasizing inclusivity and equal accessibility. Shifting perceptions of the usefulness of trees can lead to enhanced green infrastructure, providing natural flood defences and promoting a climate-resilient environment.
Regulation and Oversight
Better regulated and overseen local councils ensure accountability, transparency, and a balanced response to flood resilience. A shift towards a local community/business model, while leading to larger community-scale initiatives, must address affordability concerns to remain inclusive.
Community Empowerment
Community partnerships with businesses empower residents, fostering a sense of shared responsibility and collective action. New flood resilience products and climate-resilient measures support people during flood events, encouraging proactive measures and preparedness.
Financial Responsibility
Little regulation can lead to a corporate responsibility model, prompting community entrepreneurs and privatized flood resilience initiatives. The question of financial responsibility arises, with considerations on whether flooded communities or a broader entity bear the costs, possibly adopting a “polluter pays” principle.
Commercial Aspects of Flood Defence
Traditional flood defences maintained and invested in by businesses highlight a commercial aspect to flood resilience, potentially contributing to inequality in flood risk. A lack of regulation can result in a chaotic response, emphasising the need for structured frameworks to guide flood resilience efforts.
Bilingual Information and Communication
Inclusivity is paramount, and bilingual information ensures that all members of the community are well-informed and can actively participate in flood resilience efforts.
Balancing Responses and Adaptation
Rivers present challenges and opportunities, prompting discussions on reopening canals for improved drainage. The commercial aspect of flood defence can lead to inequalities, highlighting the need for balanced responses that address the unique needs of all communities.